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backup/first -fina app/app/predictions.py
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373
backup/first -fina app/app/predictions.py
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"""
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Spending Predictions Module
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Analyzes historical spending patterns and predicts future expenses
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"""
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from app import db
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from app.models.category import Category, Expense
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from sqlalchemy import extract, func
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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from collections import defaultdict
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import statistics
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def get_spending_predictions(user_id, months_ahead=3):
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"""
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Predict spending for the next X months based on historical data
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Args:
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user_id: User ID to generate predictions for
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months_ahead: Number of months to predict (default: 3)
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Returns:
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dict with predictions per category and total
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"""
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categories = Category.query.filter_by(user_id=user_id).all()
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predictions = {
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'by_category': {},
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'total_months': 0,
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'insights': []
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}
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current_date = datetime.now()
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total_predicted = 0
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total_months_data = []
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for category in categories:
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category_prediction = predict_category_spending(
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category,
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current_date,
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months_ahead
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)
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if category_prediction['predicted_amount'] > 0:
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# Add category_id for API calls
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category_prediction['category_id'] = category.id
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predictions['by_category'][category.name] = category_prediction
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total_predicted += category_prediction['predicted_amount']
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total_months_data.append(category_prediction['historical_months'])
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# Calculate overall statistics
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if predictions['by_category']:
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avg_months = sum(total_months_data) / len(total_months_data)
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predictions['total_months'] = int(avg_months)
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# Determine overall confidence
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if avg_months >= 6:
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overall_confidence = 'high'
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elif avg_months >= 3:
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overall_confidence = 'medium'
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else:
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overall_confidence = 'low'
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# Determine overall trend
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increasing = sum(1 for p in predictions['by_category'].values() if p['trend'] == 'increasing')
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decreasing = sum(1 for p in predictions['by_category'].values() if p['trend'] == 'decreasing')
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if increasing > decreasing:
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overall_trend = 'increasing'
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elif decreasing > increasing:
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overall_trend = 'decreasing'
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else:
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overall_trend = 'stable'
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predictions['total'] = {
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'amount': round(total_predicted, 2),
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'confidence': overall_confidence,
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'trend': overall_trend,
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'months_of_data': int(avg_months)
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}
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else:
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predictions['total_months'] = 0
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predictions['total'] = {
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'amount': 0,
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'confidence': 'none',
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'trend': 'stable',
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'months_of_data': 0
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}
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# Generate insights
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predictions['insights'] = generate_insights(predictions['by_category'], current_date)
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return predictions
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def predict_category_spending(category, current_date, months_ahead=3):
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"""
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Predict spending for a specific category
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Uses weighted average with more recent months having higher weight
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"""
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# Get last 12 months of data
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twelve_months_ago = current_date - timedelta(days=365)
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monthly_spending = db.session.query(
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extract('year', Expense.date).label('year'),
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extract('month', Expense.date).label('month'),
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func.sum(Expense.amount).label('total')
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).filter(
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Expense.category_id == category.id,
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Expense.date >= twelve_months_ago
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).group_by('year', 'month').all()
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if not monthly_spending:
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return {
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'predicted_amount': 0,
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'historical_average': 0,
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'trend': 'none',
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'historical_months': 0,
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'confidence': 'none'
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}
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# Extract amounts and calculate statistics
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amounts = [float(row.total) for row in monthly_spending]
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historical_months = len(amounts)
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# Calculate weighted average (recent months have more weight)
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weights = list(range(1, len(amounts) + 1))
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weighted_avg = sum(a * w for a, w in zip(amounts, weights)) / sum(weights)
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# Calculate trend
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if len(amounts) >= 3:
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first_half = sum(amounts[:len(amounts)//2]) / (len(amounts)//2)
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second_half = sum(amounts[len(amounts)//2:]) / (len(amounts) - len(amounts)//2)
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if second_half > first_half * 1.1:
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trend = 'increasing'
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elif second_half < first_half * 0.9:
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trend = 'decreasing'
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else:
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trend = 'stable'
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else:
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trend = 'stable'
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# Adjust prediction based on trend
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if trend == 'increasing':
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predicted_amount = weighted_avg * 1.05 # 5% increase
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elif trend == 'decreasing':
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predicted_amount = weighted_avg * 0.95 # 5% decrease
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else:
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predicted_amount = weighted_avg
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# Multiply by months ahead
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predicted_total = predicted_amount * months_ahead
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# Calculate confidence based on data consistency
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if len(amounts) >= 3:
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std_dev = statistics.stdev(amounts)
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avg = statistics.mean(amounts)
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coefficient_of_variation = std_dev / avg if avg > 0 else 1
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if coefficient_of_variation < 0.3:
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confidence = 'high'
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elif coefficient_of_variation < 0.6:
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confidence = 'medium'
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else:
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confidence = 'low'
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else:
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confidence = 'low'
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return {
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'predicted_amount': round(predicted_total, 2),
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'monthly_average': round(predicted_amount, 2),
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'historical_average': round(statistics.mean(amounts), 2),
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'trend': trend,
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'historical_months': historical_months,
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'confidence': confidence,
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'min': round(min(amounts), 2),
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'max': round(max(amounts), 2)
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}
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def generate_insights(category_predictions, current_date):
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"""Generate human-readable insights from predictions"""
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insights = []
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# Find categories with increasing trends
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increasing = [
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name for name, pred in category_predictions.items()
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if pred['trend'] == 'increasing'
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]
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if increasing:
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insights.append({
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'type': 'warning',
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'message': f"Spending is increasing in: {', '.join(increasing)}"
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})
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# Find categories with high spending
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sorted_by_amount = sorted(
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category_predictions.items(),
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key=lambda x: x[1]['predicted_amount'],
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reverse=True
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)
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if sorted_by_amount:
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top_category = sorted_by_amount[0]
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insights.append({
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'type': 'info',
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'message': f"Highest predicted spending: {top_category[0]}"
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})
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# Find categories with high confidence
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high_confidence = [
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name for name, pred in category_predictions.items()
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if pred['confidence'] == 'high'
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]
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if len(high_confidence) >= 3:
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insights.append({
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'type': 'success',
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'message': f"High prediction accuracy for {len(high_confidence)} categories"
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})
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# Seasonal insight (simple check)
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current_month = current_date.month
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if current_month in [11, 12]: # November, December
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insights.append({
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'type': 'info',
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'message': "Holiday season - spending typically increases"
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})
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elif current_month in [1, 2]: # January, February
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insights.append({
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'type': 'info',
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'message': "Post-holiday period - spending may decrease"
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})
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return insights
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def get_category_forecast(category_id, user_id, months=6):
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"""
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Get detailed forecast for a specific category
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Returns monthly predictions for next N months
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"""
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category = Category.query.filter_by(
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id=category_id,
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user_id=user_id
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).first()
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if not category:
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return None
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current_date = datetime.now()
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# Get historical monthly data
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twelve_months_ago = current_date - timedelta(days=365)
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monthly_data = db.session.query(
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extract('year', Expense.date).label('year'),
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extract('month', Expense.date).label('month'),
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func.sum(Expense.amount).label('total')
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).filter(
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Expense.category_id == category_id,
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Expense.date >= twelve_months_ago
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).group_by('year', 'month').order_by('year', 'month').all()
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if not monthly_data:
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return {
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'category_name': category.name,
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'forecast': [],
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'message': 'Not enough data for predictions'
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}
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# Calculate base prediction
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amounts = [float(row.total) for row in monthly_data]
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avg_spending = statistics.mean(amounts)
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# Generate forecast for next months
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forecast = []
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for i in range(1, months + 1):
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future_date = current_date + timedelta(days=30 * i)
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# Simple seasonal adjustment based on month
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seasonal_factor = get_seasonal_factor(future_date.month)
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predicted = avg_spending * seasonal_factor
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forecast.append({
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'month': future_date.strftime('%B %Y'),
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'month_num': future_date.month,
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'year': future_date.year,
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'predicted_amount': round(predicted, 2)
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})
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return {
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'category_name': category.name,
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'category_color': category.color,
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'historical_average': round(avg_spending, 2),
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'forecast': forecast
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}
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def get_seasonal_factor(month):
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"""
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Get seasonal adjustment factor based on month
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This is a simplified version - could be made more sophisticated
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with actual historical data analysis
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"""
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# Holiday months (Nov, Dec) typically have higher spending
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# Summer months might vary by category
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factors = {
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1: 0.9, # January - post-holiday slowdown
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2: 0.95, # February
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3: 1.0, # March
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4: 1.0, # April
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5: 1.05, # May
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6: 1.05, # June - summer
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7: 1.05, # July - summer
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8: 1.0, # August
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9: 1.0, # September - back to school
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10: 1.05, # October
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11: 1.1, # November - holidays starting
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12: 1.15 # December - peak holiday
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}
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return factors.get(month, 1.0)
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def compare_with_predictions(user_id, month=None, year=None):
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"""
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Compare actual spending with predictions
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Useful for showing accuracy of predictions
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"""
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if month is None:
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month = datetime.now().month
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if year is None:
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year = datetime.now().year
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categories = Category.query.filter_by(user_id=user_id).all()
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comparison = {
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'month': month,
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'year': year,
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'categories': {}
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}
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for category in categories:
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# Get actual spending for the month
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actual = db.session.query(func.sum(Expense.amount)).filter(
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Expense.category_id == category.id,
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extract('year', Expense.date) == year,
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extract('month', Expense.date) == month
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).scalar()
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actual = float(actual) if actual else 0
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# Get predicted value (simplified - using average)
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prediction = predict_category_spending(category, datetime.now(), 1)
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predicted = prediction['monthly_average']
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if predicted > 0:
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accuracy = (1 - abs(actual - predicted) / predicted) * 100
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else:
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accuracy = 0 if actual == 0 else 0
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comparison['categories'][category.name] = {
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'actual': round(actual, 2),
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'predicted': round(predicted, 2),
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'difference': round(actual - predicted, 2),
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'accuracy': round(accuracy, 1)
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}
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return comparison
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